War and children

[Grizzly_Bare]

I have been coming back to this topic and finding harder to say much more than calculating the costs in lives, and infrastructure. The war may be reaching what military theorist call culmination -- when one of the parties exhausts its fighting power - morale, military/material and political. Russia's military fighting power is likely to reach this threshold in a matter of weeks.

The optimist might see serious negotiations and a ceasefire by July [the pessimist on the hand more fighting in summer counter-offensives].

OTR rightly warns of extensive famine and other knock-on effects to global supply chains  - not too mention Covid-19 and perilous drops in supply of sunflower oil, wheat etc.

The price of nutrients for UNICIF's lifesaving treatment of severe-wasting - life threatening malnutrition - has already increased 16% as has the costs of shipping etc.  The nutritional support is needed for 13.6  million children under 5  right now and 5.8 million urgently required. 

Apparently  according to UNICEF it costs $300 million to reach all these vulnerable kids and provide this crucial help -- but of course they dont have these funds --  come on rich nations, tycoons and billionaires -- spare a dime.

[on the rocks]

The United States alone seems about to ready commit more money to this conflict than Russia spends on its entire military.  With Mariupol finally in hand, it would be in Russia's best interest to sue for peace before the full force of that funding hits the front.  Otherwise they will find themselves losing not just what they invaded this year but everything they stole from Ukraine in 2014.  Especially since Ukraine will probably no longer settle for a negotiated peace along the present front, given their increasing support.  Fighting an offensive war to liberate territory held by an dug-in enemy is a lot different from simply defending against an unmotivated, mismanaged attacker, so money might not necessarily "buy" total victory for Ukraine.

But there is heavy motivation for The West to punish the Russian state for this violation of the international order.  To force them to continue to fight when they are ready to cry Uncle is in the long term strategic interest of NATO and the longer the fight goes on, the weaker Russia gets and the weaker Putin appears to a population not wholly on board with this war.  I said it before, but the war probably only ends when Putin is deposed in a coup by the military/oligarchs.  And once that happens, the future gets super messy in Russia.  Someone should start finding more chairs at the UN because they are going to need more spaces to seat countries in a couple years.

[Grizzly_Bare]

Fighting an offensive war to liberate territory held by an dug-in enemy is a lot different from simply defending against an unmotivated, mismanaged attacker, so money might not necessarily "buy" total victory for Ukraine.

I agree the "West/US" would be 'happy' to fight the Russians to the last Ukranian! The result even more destruction and losses to both and a greatly weakened Russia at risk of collapse. The next few weeks in the Donbas will be critical too and so in the 4th month of the war we may see some outcome but odds are on a stalemate. 

Over 18,000 schools and educational institutions have been destroyed and nearly 2,000 hospitals and clinics -- what a tragic outcome for children - it will take years to get those back up and running.

[Grizzly_Bare]

Radio Silence - but I hear background noise.....thousands of Ukranian children are on holidays in Russia!

236 days since the war in Ukraine started - losses are really impacting us all but so heavily on the combatants and civilian population. A Google search can list some of the costs --- $360 billion, millions displaced, tens of thousands killed and injured, a global food and energy crisis and untold impacts on the environment and so on. Expect more....before the idiocy ends.

How it is going to end - no idea - meanwhile too bad if your a kid that has been whisked away from home, village to become Russian.

[Daddy23458]

There are some really great adoption possibilities coming out of the Ukraine. You should look into it.

[on the rocks]

The most reasoned estimate I've seen places civilian deaths in Ukraine at 16,000 currently.  That's quite jarring for Europe at this point in history, but I must say, considering all of the deliberate attacks on obvious civilian targets, it's less terrible than I feared.  Caveat being this does not yet count areas currently still occupied by the aggressor.

More jarring is the likely six figure casualties on both sides at this point in the conflict.  The Russians, by most accounts, have managed to lose more soldiers in battle this year than the United States has in every single conflict since the end of World War 2.  And now they're sending under-trained conscripts to the front as basically cannon fodder in a true throwback to Stalinist military tactics.  It's fucking terrible, but if Russia gains one square meter of territory from this naked aggression, then those deaths will all be in vain.  This war is punishment for Russia for 15 years of brutality against Georgia, Syria and now Ukraine.  You cannot achieve lasting peace with appeasement.  That is the lesson of this war.  Give Vlad an inch and he takes a yard.

This war ends when Russia either sheepishly returns the stolen lands at the negotiating table or are physically ousted from them.
Anything less is appeasement.

[Grizzly_Bare]

There are some really great adoption possibilities coming out of the Ukraine. You should look into it.

A first requirement is to be married (a bit of an issue for some) and possibly up to $40K for various fees etc and loads of documents. A criminal record shuts you out for sure.